I look at it in a different light. The contenders showing up in their best condition ever...... for guys that have showed a drop off or inconsistency in form to be their best ever is not something you'd have good odds on with a bookie.
Athlete by athlete:
Jay - played the size game and after about 5yrs was actually recognised for the year he was the better against Coleman (he wasn't his best the year he won, it was several years previous). Has massive imbalances and unless he can hide them with his posing will battle to be top 5. Hide them though and he will do better than he deserves. And I'm sick of the "you can't see the imbalances" BS, go and get your eyes checked
Dexter - finally was recognised after being a clear champ several years earlier. His win was also a drastic change away from over a decade (close to 2 decades) of rewarding the mass monsters. This move would not have been taken lightly and shows a change in what the judges are looking for. Dex wasn't at his best last year, but he has made some improvements and when has he not shown up with terrific conditioning. I can't see him lower than third and is a good chance for a second win.
Kai - IMO is the most average of the list of potential winners. I don't think he has aesthetic proportions, his lauded posing routines belong in a strip club and finally his Arnold win is being over-quoted. His nearest competitor was coming off major surgery, the next was a 202 competitor and the other has an unfortuneate pec tear, how is this a decisive win? The biggest point that people fail to take on board is the disrepute that he will bring to the sport from the wider community with his G4P videos. It is a massive skeleton in his closet that will always hold him back from being held up as the BBing O Champ.
Victor - lacks legs. Enough said. He has made improvements in his legs in only a few months since the AC. Give him another month or so and he could have a very complete package. Or he could show up only "improved" since the AC, which isn't enough to win the O against Dex or Phil or Jay for that matter. It should be enough to beat Kai however.
Phil - looked to have won the O last year. He has improved since last year. His conditioning will be key to beating Dex, as well as maintaining his lines. His guest posing against Dex and Jay he looked to have a better package than both, and looked to carry enough mass to eclipse guys actually bigger than him. The biggest concern is what he brings on stage and whether his arms have become too big for his chest. IMO he is this years winner, but he has to beat Dex who is possibly one of the most consistent contenders.