raps are 1-1, they look alright so far...i think they can creep into the 8th or 7th spot...
I just found this, it discusses Lebron's "Bird rights"
Why the Cavs 'Bird Rights' to LeBron don't matter
Posted on: December 31, 2008 2:43 am
Edited on: December 31, 2008 2:44 am
Over in the CBS NBA forum, CBS user Feanor made a great post earlier this week about NBA cap space, and in it a lot of fans seemed to think that Cleveland, due to possessing Bird Rights to LeBron, can offer LeBron a deal that far far exceeds anything teams like Detroit or New Jersey or New York could offer LeBron. I thought that I would make a post about what "Bird Rights" really are and what they mean to superstars like LeBron for the upcoming 2010 free agent class for the Knicks instead of recaping a Bobcats game, since I am still waiting on the Knicks to show me what direction they are going in.
The most important draw about Bird Rights, and the real value they have, is getting to sign a free agent if you are over the cap when he is a free agent. However, you don't get to use the vast majority of the powers of Bird Rights on a player if you are under the cap (Like Cleveland will be in 2010). Bird Rights are a salary cap EXCEPTION. Since the Cavs will be under the cap, they don't get execeptions from the cap, they don't need them. It would be like if your bank let you be exempt from one overdraft charge a year after you had 3 overdrafts. If you have just one overdraft, they don't give you an exception to the fees, because you were under the exception number. So for teams under the cap (over half the NBA in 2010 by current estimation) with big time free agents (like Cleveland), the concept of Bird Rights doesn't really apply.
Also, the max salary that any superstar will get in 2010 that signs as a free agent (extensions are slightly different, but then again if you extend your contract, you arn't a free agent) is well defined in the leagues collective barganing aggreement. No matter where LeBron signs in 2010, he is going to make 17.4 million in salary for the 2010 season (give or take a touch, it will be 30% of the salary cap, but it will be the same for every team). Many fans seem to think that while the Knicks can offer LeBron a max deal, that the Cavs could offer LeBron some super max deal with a salary that starts at something like 23 million and keeps going up. Not true. LeBron will make a total of $0 more in Cleveland then he will anywhere else in 2010.
Bird Rights do apply to free agents that re-sign with teams that are under the salary cap in 2 ways, those teams can offer their superstars a 6th year, and can give raises of 10.5 percent, instead of a raise of 8%. Many Cavs fans have pointed to the oft-reported fact that LeBron can get $33 million more from the Cavs then he could from other teams and seem to think that other teams have no way to compete with that huge raise. But did you know that over 96.4% of that $33 million figure will actually go to LeBron no matter what?
The lion's share of that $33 million figure comes from the fact the Cavs can offer that 6th year that other teams cannot offer on that first contract. But the $33 million calculation ignores the fact that LeBron won't be playing for free in his sixth year with another team! Over 28.5 million of that 33 million figure is derived from that extra 6th year, and LeBron will be making 27.4 million in year 6 without all the Bird Rights multipliers. That maens even that extra 6th year that Bird Rights offer LeBron is barely worth 1 million dollars more, and we can take 27.4 million off of that 33 million figure right off the bat. Bird Rights arn't looking that important now, are they?
And it gets worse! Because after 3 years, LeBron's new team will have Bird Rights on him, and can offer him the exact same percentage raise he would have got in years 4-6 of a max deal with the Cavs. So we already know that LeBron will make the same in year one of his 2010 deal, and I think we can all agree that every team in the NBA will happily extend LeBron's deal after 3 seasons to utilize his Bird Rights and pay him the new max allowed, so now LeBron will be getting the same raise in years 4, 5, and 6 of his next deal. So only in years 2 and 3 with Cleveland be able to offer an advantage.
How much is this advantage in years 2 and 3? Well, in Cleveland, LeBron will get a 10.5% raise in years 2 and 3 off his max deal of 17.4 million in 2010. In any other city, LeBron will only get an 8% raise. So in 2011 Cleveland can offer LeBron a whopping $435k more. In 2012, that number goes to $950k more. So giving up his Bird Rights will cost LeBron a grand total of under 1.4 million until he regains them with a new team. And that is it! So we can chop more money off of the 6.4 million that is left from the initial $33 million that Cleveland is said to be the only team able to offer to LeBron. Do all the math and it comes out to Cleveland barely being able to offer just over 3.5% more then any other team can offer LeBron over the first 6 years after 2010, or the difference between making over 131 million and under 136 million on his NBA contract. It doesn't seem like 5 million and change over a 6 year period is going to keep LBJ in Cleveland, IMO.
So in conclusion, the idea that Cleveland owns Bird Rights on LeBron, or the idea that any free agent in 2010 will likely have it's Bird Rights held by the team they are playing for at the end of the 2010 season, means that the current team that the superstar is under contract for can offer crazy cash to keep it's player that other teams can't come close to matching is very wrong.
Superstars in 2010 will be signing contracts for a number of reasons, like rings, big markets, because Nike will pay you an extra $50 million to play somewhere, whatever. But hopefully this shows that Bird Rights are not going to be a significant factor to free agents when they sign deals in 2010, so long as they arn't the rare few that will be considering re-signing with teams that will be over the cap in 2010. The money is pretty much the same everywhere for everyone when it comes to your NBA contract.
With Bird rights not being a big factor, I think that the team that is now going to land Lebron will be the Nets. Here's why:
1) Lebron wants to win championships, first and foremost. His best chance to do this will be in Jersey with the Nets.
-They already have an all star point guard in Devin Harris, who should become even better.
- Brook Lopez will be in his 3rd year, he is already one of the best young centers in the NBA, will be even better by 2010.
2) They will have the most cap room of any team (I think), so they can sign Lebron, and another star player to max contracts. Lebron has said he'd like to play with guys from the Olympic team, this basically means either Chris Bosh, or Dwayne Wade. I don't see Wade leaving the Heat, so I think Bosh would be more likely. Bosh has been an absolute force this year, and could arguably be the best PF in the league right now.
(Note, as of now, we could theoretically have a starting line up of Lebron, Bosh, Harris, Lopez, Courtney Lee (who is decent himself).
3) The Nets absolutely suck this year, meaning they will have a high draft pick for next year in what appears to be a very strong draft. They are 0-6, dead last in the league. If they win the lottery, or even pick in it, they could get a very good player for a great rookie price.
If they get the top overall pick then they could get John Wall who has been described as a better version of Derrick Rose. Though they'd have to ship out Harris likely, but they would definitely be able to do that since he has a reasonable contract, and likely get an asset in return.
If this happens, now we can have Lebron, Bosh, Lopez, Wall, Lee. But, what isn't being factored in is that they would save about $5 million in salary if they sent out Harris in favor of wall, so they could even get an upgrade at SG over Lee.
Or, they could keep Harris, and instead draft a potential a dominant power forward like Derrick Favors or Ed Davis, plus have enough cap space to keep the group together for the better part of a decade, and spend to get great players to come off the bench:
Lebron, Lopez, Harris, Favors, Lee.
4) Jay-Z being part of the ownership group. Lebron and Jay-Z are very close friends, with Lebron looking up to Jay-Z as a mentor in business endeavors. Jay-Z just started a company, Translational Advertising. This article describes the mind boggling, completely limitless sponsorship opportunities that would be available for Lebron by playing in New Jersey.
5) The Nets are likely moving to Brooklyn in 2011. This brings
- A new stadium, which the current design shows is essentially a palace.
- Lebron playing in a huge market, which would certainly make Nike and his other sponsors happy, which I'm sure would lead to more money for him.
6) It's essentially guaranteed that Russian Billionaire Mikhail Prokhorov, worth about 10 billion dollars, which would make him the NBA's 2nd wealthiest owner (next to the Blazers Paul Allen, of Microsoft/Vulcan fame). The thing about Prokhorov though is that he is willing to pay whatever it takes to win, and would not give a shit whatsoever how much the Nets overspend the salary cap, and have to pay luxury taxes. This is a guy that will take a 2 week vacation that costs him 10 million dollars at the most exclusive resorts, spends millions on private jets, girls, and he even spent almost $19,000 when he picked up the tab for a lunch! Who knows the amount of "under the table" bonuses he's willing to give his players for winning.
Bottom line, this guy is willing to spend like Steinbrenner if that is what it takes to win. I'm not entirely positive how the NBA's cap works, but I think I have an idea. Since it is a soft cap, the Nets could spend essentially whatever they want, with once they exceed the "tax level", they have to pay the NBA a luxury tax of "one dollar to the League for each dollar by which their payroll exceeds the tax level", which is normally redistributed to teams that are under the luxury tax line.
Keep in mind though, teams are only allowed to exceed the cap by signing players who have "Bird rights" ie, the Nets can NOT go out and sign Lebron, Bosh and Wade all to max contracts this off season. But what they can likely do is sign Lebron and Bosh to max, or near max contracts. Then, after the 3rd year of their deal, they can resign them both to max contracts for as long as they want, since they will then have their Bird rights.)
With all of this in mind, I strongly think Lebron is going to be a Net in 2010.
Dream scenario for him? (with the estimated salaries, and assuming the Nets land the #1 pick, and Harris is traded)
C- Lopez ($2,413,320)
PF- Bosh (~$20,000,000)
SF- Lebron (~$20,000,000)
SG- Lee ($1,352,640)
PG- Wall (~$4,300,000)
This gives a total salary of around $61 million dollars. With the Cap expected to be around $66 million, this gives them about $5,000,000 to fill out their roster, which is pretty scarce. But, if the Nets are fortunate enough to get the #1 pick, the GM could likely convince Bosh and Lebron to sign 5 year deals worth around $17 million, then after 3 years of those deals, void them and sign them both to 6 year max contracts.
It'd be a dynasty in the making.
Taken from espn regarding bosh:
"The Bulls often have been mentioned as a potential preferred destination for Bosh, and they will have both the cap space and the motivation, given their long-standing need for a scoring big man. Certainly Chicago appears to be putting together the kind of roster that could attract a marquee free agent, although it has had trouble sealing the deal in recent years."
on a flip note, is it just me or is kobe posting up more then usual?
also dj abenga was awesome