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  1. #1
    Mecca Maniac bodybuilding reputation fdelval's Avatar
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    China as new world leader?

    What do you guys thinks of China's situation as far as surpassing the US as a world super power, and becoming world's leader?

    I just want to hear what you guys have to think about it.

    will this new situation favour the world?

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  2. #2
    Mecca V.I.P. bodybuilding reputation tim290280's Avatar
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    You think they aren't already?

    They effectively own America's debt at the moment. They have the largest population. They are the single largest consumer body in the world. Their governance is not limited by foreign entities. Etc.


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  3. #3
    Mecca Maniac bodybuilding reputation fdelval's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by tim290280 View Post
    You think they aren't already?

    They effectively own America's debt at the moment. They have the largest population. They are the single largest consumer body in the world. Their governance is not limited by foreign entities. Etc.
    Yes, i was thinking that as i was writing this post.

    But aside of economic leadership, i was thinking about a cultural dominating role, gaining weight in world's politics, or even becoming an active militay power.

    Here in spain there are several american military bases, i dont want to image if china would decide to fill the world with their own military bases...




  4. #4
    Mecca V.I.P. bodybuilding reputation tim290280's Avatar
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    Military: who could honestly stop them? On the flip side of that, they are buying up resources left, right and centre, they don't need to have military bases. If they get cut off from resources, watch the sleeping dragon rise!

    Culturally dominating? They are opening up to western ideals, but they are having more and more impact the more they allow themselves into the world spotlight.

    World politics is of little concern to them. They showed that at Copenhagen.




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    Mecca V.I.P. bodybuilding reputation Braaq's Avatar
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    They are not even close to the military power that the U.S. is, nor do they have the global influence we do. We still surpass them economically, and I have a feeling they will not be doing so well for long. Just like Russia they will fall, especially given the fact that they clamp down on human rights. If they don't fall economically one day their people will rise up. They may have a huge population but most are at poverty levels and are quickly running out of resources. China also has an issue with a lopsided gender population. Due to their law of only allowing each family one child, China has a much larger male population compared to female. This is cause huge problems in the future for them. They are the largest holder of U.S. debt, but ~$850 billion out of $12 trillion... ehhhh. I am more interested in how things turn out in the next few years for the U.S., not China.


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  6. #6
    Mecca Maniac bodybuilding reputation fdelval's Avatar
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    Pretty interesting facts Braaq

    What do you mean with this?

    "They are the largest holder of U.S. debt, but ~$850 billion out of $12 trillion... ehhhh."




  7. #7
    Mecca V.I.P. bodybuilding reputation Braaq's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by fdelval View Post
    Pretty interesting facts Braaq

    What do you mean with this?

    "They are the largest holder of U.S. debt, but ~$850 billion out of $12 trillion... ehhhh."
    It is a large amount, don't get me wrong. But tim said they effectively own our debt... I think that is off considering the amount compared the full amount (~8% or so)




  8. #8
    Mecca V.I.P. bodybuilding reputation pegasus's Avatar
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    Well said braaq,

    This might help you understand the way the US dept is structured. Remember though the biggest holder of US dept is the federal reserve.

    Foreign Holders of United States Treasury Securitiessvg

    China has a lot of problems some of which braaq listed, but either way you shouldn't worry about there being a single super power in the future. There will be a number of countries that will be quite powerful, like India, Brazil, China, Russia... I think this will a good thing, since its much better than one single entity having too much power.




  9. #9
    Mecca V.I.P. bodybuilding reputation tim290280's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Braaq View Post
    They are not even close to the military power that the U.S. is, nor do they have the global influence we do.
    Military technology, not military. They essentially have the largest standing army. They aren't too bad for defenses either. If they wanted to exert influence on the world they would, but they are more focussed on themselves.

    We still surpass them economically, and I have a feeling they will not be doing so well for long.
    I was thinking this too. They had unprecidented, continued growth. It is hard to say what will happen with them economically. But they are willing to invest large scale in projects for the benefit of China so it can disguise what their actual wealth is.

    Just like Russia they will fall, especially given the fact that they clamp down on human rights. If they don't fall economically one day their people will rise up. They may have a huge population but most are at poverty levels and are quickly running out of resources.
    I'm seeing the other side of the coin here. Take a billion people starving for resources with a totalitarian state regime and you could have the single most powerful and motivated invading force the world has ever seen.

    Also I doubt their people will rise up. They have entire departments devoted to weeding out insurgencies, editing the internet, etc. The last protest (protest not uprising) was Falun Gong and that has huge support, yet it almost disappeared. The time before that they brought in the army and subsequently kicked the foreign media out and locked up participants for life. The government will allow its citizens freedoms, but only enough to keep them happy.

    China also has an issue with a lopsided gender population. Due to their law of only allowing each family one child, China has a much larger male population compared to female. This is cause huge problems in the future for them.
    It is an issue but has to be put in perspective. It was mainly an issue for a 10yr period under the one child policy. So it is somewhat overstated. I saw a doco on the policy and the numbers of females in the country is still large enough to avert a population crash. But there is also the other side of this issue. Lots of young, healthy, single men. I read an interesting statistic about when wars start, and it is when there are too many young men.

    They are the largest holder of U.S. debt, but ~$850 billion out of $12 trillion... ehhhh. I am more interested in how things turn out in the next few years for the U.S., not China.
    Yes I did overstate this a bit. But it is where that money has been placed that is the issue. A lot of the credit available for the investment sector flowed from China's savings programs. As a result China effectively owns large sections of important banks, companies and property.

    The other part of the concern is that China doesn't so much have businesses as it has State run entities. So if it decides that it is going to call in debts, or if it decides that it will pull strings on decisions being made, they suddenly have a lot of weight. China won't have a public debate about it, they won't have news coverage of the pros and cons of taking over another country, or months of propaganda (like say US or Aust or Britain going to Iraq), they will just declare they are doing it. This is not something to be treated lightly.




  10. #10
    Mecca V.I.P. bodybuilding reputation lifterdead's Avatar
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    Oh boy!

    One of my favorite topics. Having been to China a few times, worked for a Chinese and Taiwanese company, lived in Japan, and exclusively taught fresh Chinese immigrants for a few years, I built quite an opinion on the subject.

    That being said, this debate will go nowhere until you define what "New World Leader" means.

    By some definitions China is already the world leader; biggest population, largest standing army, etc. By other definitions, it's near rock bottom; human rights, environmental degradation, etc.

    So.....


    What exactly are we talking about here? Economy? Political influence? Something else?


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  11. #11
    Mecca V.I.P. bodybuilding reputation tim290280's Avatar
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    ^^ Like to hear your thoughts. I've only heard stuff second hand from Chinese postdocs and students and of course watching the documentaries on issues.

    I think the main ones are the "taking over the world" through either economic or political means. But I'd like to hear what you think of their likelihood of taking their army abroad (to say take over the mines in Australia they have been unsuccessful at buying).




  12. #12
    Mecca V.I.P. bodybuilding reputation lifterdead's Avatar
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    I don't think China will use military muscle, unless their borders are threatened or Taiwan is at stake.

    Most of my experience is with Chinese business. Some comes from direct experience with immigrants in Vancouver and the rest of it from a company I worked for that had offices in several different countries. The rest of my opinion is based off drunk rants from my Chinese friends and the xenophobic drunk rants I heard in Japan. I obviously have my own biases, so take these into consideration.

    Chinese business, I think, has a few distinct advantages over American businesses. As it's been said, large chunks of business are state owned, and the distinction between private and state owned can be blurry. The Chinese way of doing business is its greatest strength and also it's greatest weakness.

    Take, for example, this story a Chinese student told me about his mother. She had just arrived in Vancouver, spoke little or no English, and her son had taken her to the DMV to see about getting a driver's permit. After taking the exam, she passed the instructor a small envelope full of cash. The instructor was outraged, accused her of bribery. The mother was confused, and the son had to go to great lengths to explain it was NOT a bribe. Why? As I understand it, this is just a regular way of treating officials in China. It's not illegal, it's tradition, so to speak. Later that year, I taught a class full of A+ students from Beijing University who couldn't speak a lick of English. Horrified at having them in my class, I asked them how they could all have A's on their report cards yet be unable to articulate a sentence. Several frankly admitted they paid their professors for grades, and that this was a common practice in China. As much as I warned students not to do this in Canada, they had a hard time stopping. Sadly, a failing student offered me tickets to the Beijing Olympics in exchange for passing him, and I had to report it. He was eventually kicked out of the university.

    My grand theory: If you've got money, none of the government regulations matter in China.

    As we've seen in the U.S., heavy government involvement in the private sector can really fuck things up. Given the tendency of Chinese people to smooth things over with money, I believe this helps a lot of companies do business they otherwise couldn't, hence the steady economic growth.

    The flip side is all the environmental damage done by this abuse.




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  13. #13
    Mecca V.I.P. bodybuilding reputation Braaq's Avatar
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    Having the largest free standing army isn't much of an advantage these days. Maybe a long time ago, but not now. One thing they do not have, experience. They never leave their boundaries and have had few conflicts and no full scale war since the Communist revolution, unless you want to count their participation in the Korean War. The U.S. doesn't have this problem as well all know. Also, having such a large standing army makes one problem glaringly obvious... maneuvering and transporting. Also, given that China has few allies in the world I do not see them having the advantage when they are desperate for resources. Russia for instance has always had a sticky relationship with China and only is in good terms when it is convenient. Soon China is going to hit the ceiling and I don't see them busting through. But time will tell.




  14. #14
    Mecca V.I.P. bodybuilding reputation tim290280's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Braaq View Post
    Having the largest free standing army isn't much of an advantage these days. Maybe a long time ago, but not now. One thing they do not have, experience. They never leave their boundaries and have had few conflicts and no full scale war since the Communist revolution, unless you want to count their participation in the Korean War. The U.S. doesn't have this problem as well all know. Also, having such a large standing army makes one problem glaringly obvious... maneuvering and transporting. Also, given that China has few allies in the world I do not see them having the advantage when they are desperate for resources. Russia for instance has always had a sticky relationship with China and only is in good terms when it is convenient. Soon China is going to hit the ceiling and I don't see them busting through. But time will tell.
    This assumes that China is full of pacifist weanies and run by incompetent fools. If anything I would have said China has less weanies and is more progressive (not saying they don't have them). They have all sorts of long term projects planned, progressive future plans. I think they have thought about and are considering about what they need to do into the future. Once again a totalitarian state has less issues with being progressive.

    Quote Originally Posted by lifterdead
    The flip side is all the environmental damage done by this abuse.
    They are a study of contrasts are they not!? They also have vast national reserves (from what I understand) and can/have do/done environmentalism properly.




  15. #15
    Mecca V.I.P. bodybuilding reputation lifterdead's Avatar
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    They are a study of contrasts are they not!? They also have vast national reserves (from what I understand) and can/have do/done environmentalism properly.
    __________________

    Definitely! It always amazes me that for all the chemicals China dumps into the ocean and atmosphere, they also invest billions in alternative energy and mass transportation.

    Contrasts, indeed.




  16. #16
    Mecca Super-***** bodybuilding reputation bodybuilding reputation dilatedmuscle's Avatar
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    I wouldnt mind, I like their food and ive hears some pretty reliable rumors that Chinese women have horizontal vaginas.


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    Mecca V.I.P. bodybuilding reputation lifterdead's Avatar
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    I wouldnt mind, I like their food and ive hears some pretty reliable rumors that Chinese women have horizontal vaginas.
    I know it's a joke, but that's a pretty insulting thing to say.




  18. #18
    I am god. bodybuilding reputation Skeptic's Avatar
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    @ Dilatedanus -->


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