Predict the next few years!

[lifterdead]

Why not? Given all the fun going on I thought it might be interesting to see what other people think will happen. After all, there are quite a few intelligent people here who might make some good guesses.

I'm going out on a limb:

1) Deflation until till mid or the end of 2009.
2) Hyperinflation once government spending really gets rolling. The US attempts to use inflation to get rid some of its debt.
3) Oil prices go back up in 2010 or so, and the industry makes a mini-recovery.
4) Obama scraps the US dollar and introduces a new currency, one with a fixed value based on real estate, ala the Weimar Republic.

End Result: the US is a much, much poorer country, slums develop outside major cities, but life goes on. The Bears come back and win the SuperBowl in 2012.

 

[Tech]

 

[lifterdead]

The Future of America?

 

[Ironslave]

I went with the third.... if America did the right things it would be the second, maybe even the first, but they aren't.

I agree with you about the deflation/inflation and the timeline, sounds about right but could be a year or so later maybe. I also agree about oil, I see it back around $100 soon.

Gold at $2,000 an ounce, if not higher. (hint, buy it!)

something will happen as a major country like China/Japan will stop/reduce lending America money.

America will still have troops in Iraq, and Afghanistan will probably be worse than Iraq was.

The american auto industry (as it is now) is dead, or on its last breath.

Unemployment may/may not change much, though the economy itself will still be bad/worse.

Other commodities, particularly in farming/agriculture will increase in price.

Tons of money/investments are spent in alternative/green energy sources, but not much good develops from it.

 

[lifterdead]

I forgot to throw in this one: fusion devices achieve reliable net power production in the next 5-6 years. Commercial reactors go online in 2020.

 

[pegasus]

or a case for the need of a North American Union can be put forward, which brings with it a new currency.

or we might witness the US break up into pieces like the soviet union did..

 

[Samoan-Z]

I can see a North American Union with Canada and Mexico into an entire nation, but not breaking apart... okay maybe not mexico tbh..

 

[pegasus]

http://lighthousepatriotjournal.wor...way-a-beginning-for-the-north-american-union/

If there is going to be a union, Mexico will be in it for sure..

 

[El Freako]

Fingers crossed for option 4... I want to see the Aussie dollar worth more than the US.

Spoiler

Of course this is a joke, we rely on the US dollar so much that our economy might possibly crash too.

 

[Bulkboy]

went with option 1, i just dont see any country able to pick up the torch and take americas place as the leading economic power. this financial crisis have shown just how vulnerable the chinese economy for instance is by being so export dependent. america is still the most complex, largest economy, and i still see the world buying US dollars, because there isnt much of an option. in the end, inflation will only serve americas interests when it comes to paying off the debt, the US has all its debt in its own currency and can manipulate the dollar.

 

[Ryeland]

The american auto industry (as it is now) is dead, or on its last breath.

Define what aspect you think "as it is now" applies to.

The American companies are not the only ones desperately hurting right now. Toyota and Honda lost ass loads of money this year for the first time in their histories.

The way the union is structured right now will not survive. I will agree with you on that. However Ford and GM will survive this. There is still too much demand for what these guys produce that no one else can.

 

[Ironslave]

went with option 1, i just dont see any country able to pick up the torch and take americas place as the leading economic power. this financial crisis have shown just how vulnerable the chinese economy for instance is by being so export dependent. america is still the most complex, largest economy

It is FAR better though for China to be export dependent, than for America to be import dependent. Americas economy is the biggest for sure, but that's the problem, it is too big for what it produces. It's gotten so big off spending and borrowing and is now in such debt, eventually the piper is going to have to be paid.

Jim Rogers says it best, if you're smart in 1809, move to London, if you're smart in 1909, move to New York, and if you're smart in 2009, move to Beijing.

and i still see the world buying US dollars, because there isnt much of an option. in the end, inflation will only serve americas interests when it comes to paying off the debt, the US has all its debt in its own currency and can manipulate the dollar.

Why would the world want to trade in a phony currency off a debtor nation? You are right, they CAN manipulate the dollar, however it is not for the better! What they're doing is deliberately devaluing the dollar, and that will be pretty catastrophic. Inflation is in america's interest? lol.. come on man.

 

[Ironslave]

Define what aspect you think "as it is now" applies to.

The American companies are not the only ones desperately hurting right now. Toyota and Honda lost ass loads of money this year for the first time in their histories.

The way the union is structured right now will not survive. I will agree with you on that. However Ford and GM will survive this. There is still too much demand for what these guys produce that no one else can.

Yep, I was referring to the union aspects, largely, though I can see Ford and especially GM in particular having more problems. Other companies like Toyota/Honda are hurting now, absolutely, but they're run much better, and that's more indicative of an overall economic slowdown rather than being poorly run.

 

[Ryeland]

Yep, I was referring to the union aspects, largely, though I can see Ford and especially GM in particular having more problems. Other companies like Toyota/Honda are hurting now, absolutely, but they're run much better, and that's more indicative of an overall economic slowdown rather than being poorly run.

Very good points. However having worked primarily in the auto industry I can tell you that the performance of the management of these companies suffers greatly as a result of the CAW/UAW. It is more like babysitting a lot of the union guys than supervising. The union has a stranglehold over a very large portion of the ways the big 3 are run.

That said they will both experience hard times, but both of them have some really great cars and trucks rolling off the line now. For instance, the F-150 with its new trailer stability control that will greatly increase the safety of towing (being an automotive engineering student i tend to geek out about these things, sorry). I think this economic crisis has given the big 3 the ability to finally stop the union from over taxing the business with its demands.

 

[lifterdead]

Jim Rogers says it best, if you're smart in 1809, move to London, if you're smart in 1909, move to New York, and if you're smart in 2009, move to Beijing.

Worst advice I've ever heard. Having been to China more than a few times, as well as having a few business connections there, I personally judge China's economic progress to be MUCH over-hyped by Western Media. The gap between the rich and poor is astounding, environmental degradation is widespread, and corruption is rampant. Worse than the US on an order of magnitude you wouldn't believe. I've also witnessed more racism in China than any other country, except perhaps Japan.

End Rant.

 

[Ironslave]

Worst advice I've ever heard. Having been to China more than a few times, as well as having a few business connections there, I personally judge China's economic progress to be MUCH over-hyped by Western Media. The gap between the rich and poor is astounding, environmental degradation is widespread, and corruption is rampant. Worse than the US on an order of magnitude you wouldn't believe. I've also witnessed more racism in China than any other country, except perhaps Japan.

End Rant.

It's only a clever analogy. He moved to Singapore actually, because of some of the things you mentioned. It's just the fact though that China is a producer nation, while America is now a consumer nation.

 

[Braaq]

Great points, I agree with point number one. But then again it matters what you will determine is "recovery". Bulkboy makes great points and I agree with him, except for inflation being in our interest for the points RP points out in that video. And like lifterhead I agree with what he said about China 100%.
The hype of China's economic progress is like the hype that the Soviets got during the Cold war. It was largely false and used to serve US domestic and also foreign interests.

 

[Ironslave]

Great points, I agree with point number one. But then again it matters what you will determine is "recovery". Bulkboy makes great points and I agree with him, except for inflation being in our interest for the points RP points out in that video. And like lifterhead I agree with what he said about China 100%.
The hype of China's economic progress is like the hype that the Soviets got during the Cold war. It was largely false and used to serve US domestic and also foreign interests.

How though? The world is in bad shape largely because it loaned America so much money which it can't pay back. It's also in bad shape because America isn't wastefully spending as much money on their flat screens, ipods, and so forth. China makes things though.

For a nation that wants to avoid a Soviet like collapse, America is acting more and more like it. China's been the opposite, and it's reaped tremendous benefit.

I got this from another board.

It must come out of someone’s pocket. The decision by “stimulus” sponsors? Borrow the money, mostly from foreign economies. America already borrows heavily from other countries -- especially the Chinese. But we should remember that whoever pays the piper gets to call the tune. * * * Those who have maxed out their credit cards know that it worsens your credit rating, generating higher interest rates or even a total cutoff. You may feel stimulated after a shopping spree -- but your mood turns to depression when the bills arrive. * * * . . . the latest Treasury Department numbers (November) show China’s holdings in our national debt are up to $682 billion from $459 billion in the prior 12 months. Oil exporters such as the Mid East and Venezuela upped their holdings, and we now owe them $198 billion. We owe Russia $78 billion. And foreigners who use Caribbean banks for secrecy hold our markers for $220 billion. Treasury reports that this group -- China, the MidEast, Russia, Venezuela and the Caribbean -- have been our main sources for new borrowing in the last 12 months.

If these countries stop loaning America money, and stop using dollars as currency, things are going to get VERY bad.

 

[Duality]

Worst advice I've ever heard. Having been to China more than a few times, as well as having a few business connections there, I personally judge China's economic progress to be MUCH over-hyped by Western Media. The gap between the rich and poor is astounding, environmental degradation is widespread, and corruption is rampant. Worse than the US on an order of magnitude you wouldn't believe. I've also witnessed more racism in China than any other country, except perhaps Japan.

End Rant.

just out of curiousity what kind of racism are we talking about, and directed at whom?

 

[Samoan-Z]

^^ Yea me too cause I've been to china and im black and got no racism responses at all.